Will Race Decide the Election?

Dick Polman in todays Philadelphia Inquirer suggests it will. http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_update/20080907_The_American_Debate__It_s_little_discussed__but_Obama_s_race_may_be_decider.html

The vast majority of Republicans will not be voting for Mr. Obama, my mother-in-law being an exception that proves the rule. Most Republicans will not support any candidate with positions as far left as Mr. Obama.

The vast majority of Libertarians will not be voting for Mr. Obama. They see the ever expanding federal government as the overwhelming problem facing the country. While many may be somewhat sympathetic to his positions on the war in Iraq, they have a candidate, Bob Barr and will probably vote for him; all twelve of us.

There are a rather large number of people in the middle. These are dedicated Independents who vote Republican or Democratic or even Libertarian. They are always the key to any election assuming the Democrats and Republicans play their expected rolls.

The vast majority of Democrats WILL be voting for Mr. Obama, but as Mr. Polman points out in his article about 12% of Democratic voters cite race as problematic to their supporting Mr. Obama. These are people you would expect to be supportive of Mr. Obama's left of center policy prescriptions. FYI, there are more Democrats in the country than Republicans. Mr. Polman extrapolates that 12% number to the larger electorate and it is not an illogical thing to do. But Mr. Polman should be under no delusion. If Mr. Obama loses the election, it will not be due to racist Republcians or racist Libertarians or racist Independents. It will be because of racist Democrats.